Election 2020: Voit-Kampff Testing, With Anderson Cooper

Trump speech: Was it right for TV networks to cut away from president's  press conference? | The Independent

Trump’s latest “press conference” (where he took no questions) ended early for most networks because they cut away to note “He’s lying, bro.” (Anderson Cooper went the furthest, waxing poetically about an “obese turtle on its back flailing in the hot sun”.)

His speech was listless and pro-forma. He referred to Biden by his name, not a snide nickname. Apparently someone finally explained to him today his calls to “STOP THE COUNT!!”, if followed, would mean Biden would win the election. His only hope at this point is to have votes overturned, and a lot of them, in multiple states.

We’re in the endgame and Trump has no Hail Mary planned, because that takes work. He will instead rage at his advisors as they slowly turn on him, and begin the next stage of this farce, which will be a lame-duck Trump doing as much damage as he can before he is frogmarched out of the building.

Election 2020: Oh God It’s Still Happening

WI: 99% in. Biden up 0.7%. Possible recount and litigation incoming due to under 1% margin. For now we can tentatively call it for Biden.

NC: 99% in. Trump up 1.4%. Remaining votes are in districts that stayed open late due to huge turnout. Difficult to see it flipping the result, for now we can tentatively call it for Trump.

MI: 99% in. Biden up 0.7%. Possible recount and litigation incoming due to under 1% margin. For now we can tentatively call it for Biden.

GA: 97% in. Trump up 1.2%. Fulton County’s votes are in, so Trump’s margin will likely hold and we can tentatively call it for Trump.

AZ: 86% in. Biden up 3%. White House furiously contesting that this is still a possible Trump win. They’re probably wrong but the cognitive dissonance of “count EVERY voteā€¦ but only here” is darkly amusing.

NV: 85% in. Biden up 0.6%. Still too close to call though remaining mail-in votes should favor Biden heavily.

PA: 80% in. Trump up 9%. Remaining votes should heavily favor Biden. The Republicans have declared war over the results and will take it to the Supreme Court, as they’ve telegraphed for weeks.

ME: 79% in. Biden up 12%. We can probably call this for Biden.

AK: 39% in, but Trump is up 27% and the state traditionally breaks Republican, so we can expect this will come in for Trump.

There are conspiracy theories among right-wingers that enough votes are being stolen in the mailed vote tally to throw the election. They are wrong.

There are conspiracy theories among left-wingers that enough votes are being hijacked by post offices to throw the election. They are wrong.

Conspiracy theories make baby Lum sad.

Biden probably won. It won’t be official until the lawyers have their way with it. The Democrats didn’t win the Senate so Mitch McConnell gets a veto. Everything will continue to be horrible. You’re welcome.

Let Me Google That For You

If, as is 75% likely, the Democrats sweep the Presidency, the House and the Senate tomorrow and certain media and political figures begin demanding civility and understanding, kindly keep this handy search ready.

It’s not just spite (although, yes, there is some. Having your government spit on you and try to kill you out of neglect for 4 years does that.) It’s a signifier that the keystone of democracy – convincing others of the correctness of your opinions and why the people who embody them should be chosen – no longer applies, and only raw strength matters. Truth is a media construct, empathy is for suckers, and mercy is a weakness. The more that we do to hurt you, the more we like it.

The masks came off. Remember, when they start going back on.

(Hopefully, they start going back on. The alternative – that democracy is dead and raw power is the only thing that matters – is too horrible to contemplate.)


As Your Doctor, I Recommend Voting Heavily

So here’s the schedule (all times in Central US, which is GMT-6)

Today: no polls, and no voting. Last minute campaign rallying. Normally would be no news but last night at midnight Trump decided to announce he was going to fire Fauci so who knows.

Tomorrow, daytime: voting begins. Expect lots of stories of extremely long lines, and possible voter intimidation (the right wing will come up with one scary black person in Philadelphia to justify the New Black Panther Party coming to steal your suburbs, while heavily armed Trump supporters will show up at polling places just to, you know, hang out). No exit polls will be announced by any reputable news organizations; some may leak to places like Drudge.

Note also that many polling sites may stay open late if voters are still in line, which will affect the times listed below.

6:00PM – the first polling sites close on the East coast. Expect many states to be called immediately because they were never in doubt. The results to look for: Georgia (which is a tossup but final results will take days), South Carolina (if showing Biden in striking range, could be significant. Also, Lindsay Graham’s career is in peril.)

6:30PM – polls close in, among a few to be called immediately, Ohio and North Carolina. Ohio will almost certainly not have any clear results for days. North Carolina will open reporting its early voting which almost certainly be deceptively strong for Biden. The actual trend will not be apparent for a few hours.

7:00PM – another wave of poll closings. The only results in doubt are Florida. As many polls in Florida actually closed at 6:00PM, if the state broke clearly one way or the other it may be apparent now. If it’s close, it will take a few hours. Pennsylvania also will begin reporting results; the chances of any significant decision there at this hour is 0.0000%. We won’t know Pennsylvania’s result until possibly next week, or maybe next month if the courts get involved.

8:00PM – another wave. Significant states include Michigan (which had many polls close at 7 — if the results don’t match polling which indicated a win for Biden, it will be noticeable), Minnesota (another likely win for Biden, but Trump has tried hard here), Texas (which has almost no mail-in ballots because Texas doesn’t believe in them, however, given latest polling is literally a tie, a clear winner will take a few hours to be apparent), Arizona, and Wisconsin (which will almost certainly be very slow in reporting results – the Republican state legislature has absolutely gutted the election apparatus because Wisconsinites have been voting incorrectly)

9:00PM – this hour’s wave of closings include Nevada (a likely Biden win which will report results fairly quickly). Of more significance – this is about when we should start to see statistically significant results from some close states such as Florida and Georgia.

10:00PM – Polls close almost everywhere except Alaska and Hawaii, and the West Coast begins to report results.

11:00PM – If Biden has closed Trump’s path to victory, it should be apparent about now. If Trump loses in Texas, North Carolina, or Georgia, he almost certainly cannot win the Presidency. If Trump loses Florida or Ohio, it becomes very difficult. If Biden has a substantial lead in any of them, the discussion now will be if/when Trump will concede. If Trump is leading in all of them, according to the Axios story this is when he will claim premature victory – which, while technically meaningless, will immediately move the election to the next phase of “litigating every vote still outstanding”, and will probably land Wisconsin and Pennsylvania’s results in the courts.

So we’ll know by 11 which part of the Choose-Your-Own-Nightmare Series book we turn to next, basically. Do we wonder how Trump reacts to a thumping election defeat and three months of ruling with zero accountability as a lame duck who could conceivably start wars and pardon everyone he knows? Do we confront a failure of polling, a clear Trump victory, and the probable demise of American democracy? Or do we wonder if we’re going to spend the next few months in chaotic civil war over which votes will be ignored?

Fun stuff. As your doctor, I recommend drinking heavily.