The Week The Music Died

It’s hard to overstate how difficult this week was for what remains of the MMO industry.

First off,  Bioware took an axe to the Old Republic team. No official numbers on how many were let go, but most people I’ve talked to put the total bloodletting at somewhere in the neighborhood 0f 200 people… 40% of the studio.  This after EA went through contortion after contortion trying to first boost then mask subscriber numbers (at one point giving most players a free month of time) finally coming out and saying that the most expensive game ever produced (my initial estimate of $150m  was at least $50m low) wasn’t really that important and why are you people so interested in it anyway? So, a retrenchment of the team, which never really underwent the usual post-launch pruning, was inevitable.

You’d think the loss of 40% of the team working on the highest profile MMO release of the year would be hard to top, but hand it to Curt Schilling, he stepped up to the plate without fanfare, knocked it out of the park, into the bleachers, and  straight into the record books with a company explosion so painfully drawn out and mismanaged that it may have poisoned the well for anyone ever considering investing in an MMO company. Lest you think I’m exaggerating, let me direct you to a press conference by the esteemed Governor of Rhode Island trying to explain the mystery of role playing game sell-through, team burn rate, and why those games are so sexy and violent, anyway. Or just check any media source in Rhode Island or Massachusetts, with people with no connection to gaming other than, you know, paying taxes, furious that they, through the state, apparently now are on the hook for $90 million dollars to pay, among other things, a cool $1.4 million to R. A. Salvatore to come up with synonyms for the word “drow”. (At least, until the company collapsed, at which point Salvatore, as a stakeholder along with Rhode Island taxpayers, lost any hope of being paid.) Coincidentally, that is also close to what 38 Studios paid the state of Rhode Island this month in lieu of paying the people who worked there.

While all this was happening, 38Studios employees were kept completely in the dark. Their first warning was when payroll checks stopped showing up in their bank accounts. The final warning was a dismissal letter showing all the compassion of Ayn Rand towards welfare recipients.

And that’s just what’s on the public record so far. The rumors that have been surrounding this total collapse/clusterbomb have made the above look like a case study in business management. Insurance plans unpaid for months (and literally uncovered by pregnant women informed by their doctor that their insurance expired) ensuring that the newly laid off employees are disqualified for COBRA and liable for pre-existing conditions with new plans, relocation/home sales packages so badly mismanaged that ‘beneficiaries’ turned out to be liable for two mortgages and back taxes due to lack of payment, the list goes on.

Through all this, the 38Studios employees have shown an unbelievable loyalty to Curt Schilling himself. From everything I’ve heard, publicly and privately, Curt Schilling is a great guy, generous to a fault, and a gamer way back before it was ever considered cool much less a path to wealth, and has sunk over $30m of his own cash into the company.

However, Schilling is also a very wealthy man (over $114m over the length of his career), and a political conservative who has consistently demanded that government not be involved in the private sphere, except where he is involved. There is a word for that and it isn’t “great” or “generous”, it is “ragingly hypocritical“. But even beyond that, Schilling failed the 400 people who depended on him.

I’m told that most of the people affected by the Old Republic layoffs had plenty of warning what was about to happen, specifically because during a company meeting Greg Zeschuk, one of Bioware’s founders and the studio head, was honest and forthright about the challenges facing the company and what his people could probably expect. When faced with the prospect of failure, he stepped up and said hard things that no doubt hurt him deeply and personally, because his people were owed that much.

Schilling did not. Instead he continued to squander what little operating capital the company had left to it trying to continue drawing public taxpayer money into what by that point could almost be considered a Ponzi scheme, while keeping the vast majority of his employees completely unaware of how final the situation was.

Loyalty matters, but character also matters. And in this case, Schilling’s failure of character has damaged an industry, to the point where it may be years before we see another investment in MMOs. I am loathe to link to anything said by the possibly sentient Michael Pachter, but even a stopped watch is right twice a day. The MMO industry in general is in deep trouble this year, and Schilling this month pile-drived it even further into the concrete.

I have nothing but sympathy for the now-unemployed former colleagues of Schilling at 38, and I know from my own time working in the trenches that many of them will violently object to much of what I have said here. But I think the direction that our industry is going – the incredible amount of money wasted by EA on what was essentially a roll of the dice that came up 2 and 3, and the even more incredible display of massive hubris and utter incompetence on the part of Schilling and his management team, is killing the very concept of massively multiplayer gaming.

Addendum: Steve “Moorgard” Danuser, creative director and the self-described “Czar of Amalur” has a different perspective: it’s all the Governor’s fault.

We just needed a little more help, and we thought the state would have our backs on that,” said Steve Danuser, one of the creative minds at Curt Schillings 38 Studios.  “We thought the governor was an ally. It didn’t turn out that way.”

“We’ve really loved it here…we bought homes, we’ve helped the businesses in the area,” said Danuser.

“The governor has turned his back on a lot of taxpaying Rhode Island citizens who work here and it’s unfortunate because we had a lot of great people who wanted to contribute to Rhode Island and now they can’t.”

The “Czar of Amalur” says he has a few questions for the governor.

“Why did you do it? Why didn’t you help us?” asked Danuser. “He (the governor) said a lot of things, he’s broken confidentiality. He’s done a lot of things to materially hurt us and I don’t understand it.”

My comment on the above: Um.

  • whatevah2012

    Call the “waambulance”. Get in line. You think you are the first to be f**Ked? by the industry? I also blame you all. BWHAHAHAAHA! Don’t even think that you’ll ever have a secure job in gaming. You’ll be a fool. Get in, get out. You’re paychecks will bounce, your insurance will be cancelled and they will make you think the next project will land while you work for free. Don’t be an idiot. Walk out, and move on. Artists, programmers unite!

  • Ano

    Lum

    Do you think GW2 will be a success? It does try to steer away from the typical MMO themepark format.

  • Vetarnias

    I don’t work in the industry. I agree, however, that unionization is the only way.

  • https://sites.google.com/site/francoisschnell/ notfrancois

    I don’t work in the gaming industry and I’m really sad to see all these jobs lost. I simply have lots of respect for people building worlds, what a beautiful and hard task.

    I think the current model is dead but that that MMOs in general have a bright future ahead. I’m sure of it because humans, at their core, are both explorers and social animals and that the last frontier, space exploration, won’t be accessible any time soon.

    To be frank I’m baffled by the way MMORPG has been developed. They still rely on a single “dirty fix”  which simply cost too much and is not compatible with the 2.0 and “social” era we are living in : the exponential health pool increase (http://goo.gl/Iy0Qi)

    If real friends, not “time-rich” equivalent, can’t have any meaningful activities together then your MMO is dead in the social era. Games were always social until the arrival of  PC/Consoles and single player games. MMO shouldn’t go against human nature in the long term.

    It means to stop stats stacking separating players (strong vertical progression) and go with horizontal progression (similar to BFBC2 in FPS) or GW2 sidekick system which is an horizontal progression with a vertical “feeling”.

    Social structure in MMO are still mainly anti-social and encourages people to play solo after burning out  of trying to keep-up with the most time-rich players of your guild. We also  want google+ circles like in RL. We also want a public/private awareness system like chat clients or RL (not all my RL friends receive a notification when I wake up in the real world). GW2 seems to go this way from what i’ve seen on the login screen.

    Web 2.0 and Social is also about User Generated (PvP for example in MMOs) and User Created content. The last one is mostly untapped currently (Archage seems to go there and Minecraft is showing the way as already mentioned).

    I can’t stress enough how the real world have changed this last few years (CEO should read Clay Shirky books). What worked in the past won’t work today. It’s like predicting the behavior of water molecule in liquid state with solid mechanics equations: yes water molecules are still water molecules, yes players are still players but group dynamics are completely different, it’s called a paradigm change. At every step of game design people in charge should ask the question: “what is the Social Cost of this decision?” “How can we design a Social Proof MMO?”. I’m just not sure if historic MMO developers will adapt quickly enough until the FPS and Social gaming developers take advantage. Whatever happens MMO have too much potential to stop at the “dirty fix”. I’m excited by the untapped potentials of MMO and the resulting future ahead.

  • http://secondthoughts.typepad.com/ Prokofy

    Excellent reporting. I’m still trying to wrap my mind around all of this. Governments investing in gaming? They do that?!

    It sounds like there’s some underlying problems outside of the clusterfrack, however. Are sign-ups down all over the industry? Did people really all migrate to Facebook and Twitter? Or are they playing little games on their mobile phones? Where did everybody go?

  • http://loopingworld.com/ Abalieno

    He (the governor) said a lot of things, he’s broken confidentiality.
    He’s done a lot of things to materially hurt us and I don’t understand
    it.

    While I agree on the fact that the state shouldn’t have be involved, it’s also clear to me “the governor” had a reason to go against them.

    His statement about sex and violence, being COMPLETELY out of context with 38 Studios game, was very clearly a political statement.

    So the situation is rather evident: a new governor who’s culturally hostile to the game industry as a whole obviously didn’t like the deal with the game company, and so seized the first opportunity to sabotage it.

    It’s a political move. It may have not change much the outcome for 38 Studios, but the governor isn’t coming out as the savior.

  • dartwick

    People talking about where the industry is going – its going everywhere . And thats natural.

    For instance lok at how many pople are playing the beta of the indy game called  http://www.dayzmod.com/ a persistant world mod of “ARMA 2″

    Its a basically an MM) where you just try to find bullets and ammo to stay alive(Perm death with no levels).  All it keeps track of is kills and how long you live.
    This beyond the engine this is maybe the simplest MMO ever and people are loving it.

    There are many ways MMO  development can go that dont require expensive custom crafted worlds covering entire continents. We will see many more eventually.

  • Dave Weinstein

    Right, because their failure to ship their MMO was due to the Governor doing… what?

    Why would the Governor be the savior? More, why should he be?

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  • dartwick

    So the CEO was on 3 months maternity leave during which time it all fell apart?

  • dartwick

    The CEO has not been at work for the last 2 months before the company totally crumbles – and for PC reasons no one is allowed to say it?

    bias much?

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  • intehknow

    That article was misinformed. I don’t know how much he has invested, but I bet it was well over 30 mil

  • intehknow

    Glad someone (else) over there is beginning to wake up and smell the coffee6 years with virtually no investment (aside from Curt’s) the company managed to secure 1 loan from RI and that was it. Somehow we are all supposed to believe that a bunch of investors (EA it seems) were just about to invest but didn’t because of the Governor pointing out they missed a payment. 6 years virtually no investors. I think coco crisp may have some money invested, and of course Doug M. Not to mention, did Curt basically comes out and say he was going to rip off EA and fund the MMO when EA was expecting to invest in a KoA sequel? . The 38 Studios enchantment is lifting…

  • intehknow

    That is aweful! I suspect it was the COO’s decision.

  • intehknow

    exactly!

  • intehknow

    Curt wasn’t running the company? Who was? his Uncle? The people he personally picked to run it? Maybe he should of if he invested 30+ million.

  • intehknow

    Good links! It illustrates the con in con-man! Seems like his grasping at straws. Which story is it?

  • intehknow

    InsiderG OMG YES! this is by far the best well researched post. Though, the laptops were not Alienware they were Voodoo Laptops, and not rumored it was fact. There was about 50 of them at 4,500 bucks each (I saw the invoice.) Please keep telling your story as it. I have pics of the Voodoo laptopt I could not get it to link.

  • intehknow

    Oooo it did link! Shiney :)

  • intehknow

    very well thought out post. Rhode Island — the next mega MMO company!!! ( well untill they sell it…)

  • intehknow

    Another strong  post!

  • http://www.spacefiddle.com/ Rob Munsch

    Completely agree without on the need for a sandbox, although I’m not sold on the form it (they) will take.  Devs and players have become averse to Eve due to its frankly psychotic gameplay, but I think it’s a mistake to overlook its niche success with a small customer base, and the underpinnings of its boxed sandiness.

  • spacefiddle

    Glad to have you back!

    Soo… between the slow implosion of SWTOR and the quick implosion of 38, the gaming industry has blown over a quarter of a billion dollars this year..?

    The gaming industry needs a smack upside the head.  They want wow’s success, so they imitate wow.  Except wow players already have it, and wow haters don’t want it.  And they’re confused why they fail?

    38 Studios is a special case (and henceforth, gross financial mismanagement by a game company shall be known as a 38 Special).  Fail up and down the line.  And who the heck expects original story and innovative gameplay when the head writer is R. A. Salvatore?  What, the guy who got famous by ripping off Michael Moorcock’s Elric?  You have chosen… poorly.

  • http://twitter.com/D_0ne D-0ne

    When it comes to business:

    1. The guy/gal doing the back slapping and glad handing better be in marketing and not finance.

    2. The guy/gal worried about how much the coffee costs, the nerd who embarrasses too easily and the guy explaining how an extra 15 minutes in a meeting costs a fortune, should be handling everyone’s money.  

    3. The guy/gal who appears incapable of human communication but gets things done when it comes to logic, coding, data, quality…  Probably should be in charge of logic stuff and his closest fiends should translate for him in meetings…  Literally, “I talk to the God Damn Engineers so the customers don’t have to!” friend(s).

    4.   The people who usually end up in charge are naturally, psychopaths.  http://community.hrdaily.com.au/profiles/blogs/psychopaths-at-work

  • Guest

    To everyone hailing EVE as the model for future MMO development, what part of “went bankrupt after launch and was sold for a song leaving the original investors NOTHING to show for their money” do you think sounds attractive to potential MMO investors today? 

    Given the repetitive mismanagement boondoggles CCP have regularly exercised since, it’s a miracle that EVE is still alive.  But surely you must admit that starting over with a complete, published game with a couple hundred thousand paying subscribers and no debt vs. no code just an idea or tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of debt played a not insignificant part in allowing them the space to fumble their way to whatever level of success they currently enjoy?

  • John Smith

    This post should have been broken into two seperate posts lum. Ea has pretty much fuck itself and the rest of us over as mmo players. There is very little chance anyone is going to want to fund a AAA mmorpg outside of asia now.

    On the other hand, a corrupt corporate fat cat using the law to fuck over his own people is an unrelated matter and has been the status quo for quite some time.  Indeed, this has been the economic/corporate culture for almost every industry for at least 20 years now, although it’s become more and more obvious within the past 5.

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  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HX3XEUVA7ZYXZCND45YCO5OVQE Stock

    The trouble you have in determining if the MMO space is worth it for investors is that of comparison to where else the money can be put to use and the relative returns from that investment. MMOs, in general, have continued to go up in capital requirements to bring a product to market where most other technology investments have gone down (way, way down).

    MMOs are an expensive endeavor to partake and, quite frankly, the track record of failures is much bigger than the successes. The pitch always come to biulding the next WoW, but no one ever has – unfortunately, far more have failed. Investors aren’t looking to barely break-even, nor have an MMO customer base that stays static overtime but turns a profit every month. They want growth and a fairly large return on their investment.

    I don’t think SWTOR or 38 Studios is really going to change views on this as MMO investment is already a tough sell to begin with. SWTOR suffers from bad lead designers (which unfortunately is a commonality in the industry) and 38 Studios suffered from poor executive management (if which Curt Schilling was not). This happens in other industries as well.

    So, can it still be done, yes – but the business approach and the talent in the industry sorely needs to be addressed before convincing investors you can reasonably produce a return on investment.

  • Theo

    “For instance lok at how many pople are playing the beta of the indy game called  http://www.dayzmod.com/ a persistant world mod of “ARMA 2″

    As an early adopter of DayZ, I would hesitate to call it a persistent world. In my opinion, it is more of a “Roguelike Survival-Horror MMOFPS”. Its strength, shown by the recent spike in sales of ArmA II, is that this unlikely combination of established (ancient, even) genres leads to a broadly appealing social dynamic; the mod manages to package a permadeath pvp-enabled game in a manner that engages an extremely wide range of gamers, many of whom would normally balk at losing their hard-earned shiny loot.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/64TBJVS6NNWOWF5GU74BLXNV74 Andrew

    IMO I think a die off of large scale investment may be just what the MMO industry needs. Think about it, we’ve had every major player in the market throw tens and hundreds of millions of dollars down the drain again and again trying to make the lightning strike twice. Every time the best funded projects have devolved into hacked off clones of world of warcraft, a title who’s gameplay was stale when it was released most of a decade ago. Innovative titles are continuously marginalized by multi million dollar marketing campaigns, in favor of failures in waiting pushed on the gaming public by dim witted corporate dinosaurs.

    I say let it die, or at least let the AAA MMO investment die. Sometimes the old growth has to die off for new growth to reach it’s potential.

  • spacefiddle

    Hmm.  Your Washington Post link regarding the “Ponzi Scheme” comment is a dead link.  I understand this has something to do with the tax credit broker shell-game they may have been playing; is that really just a typo’d link, or did the Post take the story down?

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  • Ajt312

    Sadly, that was sort of preordained. You could see this result from almost a year before release. if the game had cost as much as WoW to make, it would now be the most successful MMO ever. But they grossly overspent in producing it. As a result there simply was not enough market to recoup the costs that they would need within anything short of a decade. The game needs not simply wow like growth numbers to make back its costs. It needs ongoing wow peak numbers, for an extended amount of time. The developers didn’t fail SWTOR, the accountants did.

  • Ajt312

    The core problem in all of this is not WoW. It is money. Or rather it is too much of it. Both of these studios failed because they put themselves into situations where they were blowing an order of magnitude more money than the product they were developing had any reasonable chance of recouping. It’s that simple.

    It doesn’t matter if SWTOR’s endgame was good or bad. Even it’s initial growth rate does not matter. You could tell that regardless of sales or subscribbers the game had almost no chance of success simply because its costs to make were so out of balance with any reasonable interpretation of success in the marketplace up to that point. The business model pretty much demanded that SWTOR grab ALL of WOW’s past and present subscribers and keep them paying for at least 2 years. This is an interesting daydream, not a solid or realistic madel on which to amortize the costs of a retail product. When your launch plan requires you to steal all of the competitors customers +1, right away, well lets just say chances are it isn’t going to happen. This was easily forseen almost a year prior to the games launch.

    As far as 38 studios? There are a few major problems there. Their deals with the state were based around providing jobs to the state. So they needed what 400-500 employees? With no revenue stream? Plus once again look at the numbers. Reports are Curt Shilling kicked in $30 million. Others, who knows how much. Plus $90 million from the state of Rhode Island? Wow! Exactly how many paying customers would the studio have needed in order to pay off those loans? for how long? The simple fact that those in chareg of the money stopped paying the health insurance without telling anyone, and that the employees were getting trapped in fraud regarding their moving expenses and mortgages seems a pretty clear indication that those in charge were just shoveling monies in and out without actually bothering to do any math. Or read and labor laws or criminal code. Best guess is they stopped paying the lawyer too. 

    And here is a brief lesson to the 38 employees. My heart goes out to you. But make sure you point your anger in the right direction. It’s not the Governor. he did his job. He was the gatekeeper of public money, not your employer. He cut the money off when he realized that your employers were shady and poor stewards of it. That was his responsibility to his employers, the taxpayers. Even the hint that this might lie on the backs of the Governor or the State evaporated when it became known that the management had not been paying the health insurance, the mortgage payments, payroll, etc. They committed fraud on the employees. They outright lied to the staff, the state and the government in their accounting and expectations. The Governor simply stopped believing the lies first.