Edge Online quotes an industry analyst as predicting a 250,000-300,000 subscriber base for Warhammer Online based on… well… I’m not sure, really. Maybe he liked the number 250.
Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee told Edge on Tuesday he came to the 250,000 subscriptions figure based on EA’s goal to break even on the game.
So all you late adopters in a couple months had better not buy the game, because EA will have broken even, and that will totally control your buying decisions.
However, the winner for industry analysis is Mark “Future’s So Bright, Gotta Wear Shades” Jacobs, who is quoted in the same article as having…
estimated the subscriber base to be “More than EverQuest (at its peak) and less than [World of Warcraft],” or between 550,000 and 11 million.
Well hell, that leaves out negative numbers, irrational numbers, and variations of π. He’s TAKIN’ THE PREDICTIVE RISKS.
#1 by analysts on September 23rd, 2008
I’m sure ea/mythic has a very good grasp on what the expected numbers are, or the game wouldn’t have been produced and EA wouldn’t have bought mythic and supported development (and I’m sure EA did their due diligence on this). In general to convince corporate you should get the green light, you’d need to show solid performance estimates well beyond “break even”, and EA *is* corporate if nothing else. Maybe I should become an MMO industry analyst.
#2 by mystery on September 23rd, 2008
Wait, there are going to be people playing this game in a couple of months…after Lich King is released?
#3 by Scott Jennings on September 23rd, 2008
http://www.wardb.com/guild.aspx?id=3979
#4 by Ashendarei on September 23rd, 2008
funny … I just glanced up at the “Recent Comments” thread / comment titles are GREAT.
#5 by Jason Ballew on September 23rd, 2008
Wrong thread! Bah.
Here’s where I meant to say this.
I’ll see your guild, and raise with this, Lum.
http://www.wardb.com/guild.aspx?id=1012
#6 by nerrollus on September 24th, 2008
I’m dying to know the subscription numbers on WAR… I wonder if they’re every going to release some numbers for bragging rights?
#7 by Iconic on September 24th, 2008
I imagine as soon as they have numbers to brag about, they will. Not saying their numbers are bad or anything, just saying… it’s been a week, so they probably expect to grow a little bit still.
#8 by Ed on September 24th, 2008
Hi, if anyone is hiring, I’d like a job similar to Mr. Bhatia. We can just call the job function, “Makin’ stuff up.” I have lots of experience in pulling random numbers out of my ass.
I guess I’m just more picky about my subscription based games than most people. If I buy an MMO I expect to play it beyond the free month. Out of the 4 or 5 MMOs I’ve played, the only one that I never subscribed to was the original Asheron’s call.
Ok, Shadowbane doesn’t count. I never opened the box. It was free. I think I still have it around somewhere. Perhaps that’s a collector’s item…
#9 by Balasarius on September 24th, 2008
Down to 300k subs 2 months after WoTLK launches.
#10 by Dave Rickey on September 24th, 2008
If they have 1M to 1.25M sellthrough, a sustained base 3 months out below 600K would be underperformance, because of *severe* design and technical problems. Good would be 800K-1M sustained.
But he’s setting a very nice and low baseline for EA to exceed expectations. Just out of curiousity, what did he predict for AoC?
–Dave
#11 by Sullee on September 25th, 2008
WoW is the suck.. blizz has done their usual mis-management job of spending what pathetically small percentage of money they re-invest into the game on the wrong things.
I wouldn’t expect masses to toss aside WAR for liche king with the anti-buzz that blizzard has been scratching at like a little kid picks a scab. Heck, I hear that in lake wintergrasp you can use a new vehicle to jump a shark.