Broken Toys

It look a lot like DAoC 2 to me.

Not that, thats a bad thing.

Interesting read. Incidentally, there is a second article on just about the same topic, also on MTV:
http://multiplayerblog.mtv.com/2008/08/29/ea-mythic-activision-world-of-warcraft-estimate-is-overblown/

Still, as much as Jacobs might have chosen the frank approach, I wonder how long he will continue doing that post-release, especially if Warhammer Online turns out to be doing not so well, or at least below expectations.

There are some things in his comments that worry me somewhat: His noting of EA’s backing just means he has a good promotional machine behind him, nothing more, especially if we consider how EA has a tradition of being accused of stretching some of their major brands right into mediocrity. The Warhammer franchise, well, that can go either way. Conan was a major franchise too, if somewhat past its prime and teetering on the edge of self-parody. Or how about Dungeons & Dragons, which if I remember correctly came back from nowhere after a decade and a half in decline, Jolson-like, thanks the “Baldur’s Gate” series, but which gave birth to a major disappointment when turned into an MMO? How do we explain then that the old BG series, first-person RPG’s, were such successes while DDO turned into what it was, despite the franchise being rooted in personal interaction?

I hope Warhammer will succeed (though I am not sure of trying it out myself), but I wish they could take things less for granted than this interview would suggest. If Warhammer fails, this will mean nothing in regard to the state of the industry, and everything in regard to Warhammer itself.

Conan was not and is not a failure. If Blizzard’s W.o.W. is the definition of success and everything else is failure, then of course Warhammer is going to fail.

Mark would give his hind teeth for AoC numbers on release.

You guys are crazy
According to Jeffrey Steefel, the next big thing is LOTRO

LOTRO tastes better than a Big Mac

“There’s another level of success, which is reaching a certain mass-market critical mass, which to be totally fair, only Blizzard has achieved completely so far,” Steefel said in an interview published today.

“We think that we are the game that has the most likelihood of being the second to do that, but we’re not there yet.”

AHAHAHA…*cough*…AHAHAHA

*Snort*

Well, if I recall correctly, word of mouth regarding LOTRO at release was tepid, but strangely enough what I have been hearing of late is rather positive, or at least evidence that a major franchise can also not be screwed up.

I don’t think it’s going to be a WoW killer, and not even a close contender for such a title, but it has a likelihood of doing very well.

Hmmm, interesting him commenting that AoC was rushed and that was bad. While WAR is less rushed than AoC it’s still going out early. Earlier in beta I thought that they wouldn’t release until november. So I wonder why they are launching in September, just to beat WotLK?

I know the only reason that I personally am giving WAR a shot is that WotLK is not out yet – now really is the best time to release to catch the bored WoW crowd. Even if a big portion of them go back to WoW with WotLK some percentage will stay unless the game is a total bomb.

A large number of my friends that play WoW are trying all sorts of other MMOs right now out of boredom – from LOTRO to EVE, any of the “active” MMOs out there today.

Vetarnias: I suspect it has something to do with LotRO’s post-ship support.

Since AC1, Turbine’s ability to deliver continuing content (free content patches every ~3 months, quarterly in-game festivals with mini-game quests and collectable items, live ops) has always been superior to the competition. They do more with a couple dozen hands than WoW does with 130. After a while, that pays off.

Hell, they added two whole new zones to the game in the first year (Evendim and Forochel).

Turbine really is the best at patching additional content into a MMO. Still I don’t think this is enough to make any of their games very successful since they seem to have a problem getting any of their games to have huge initial subscription numbers.

How did Age of Conan managed to snag 700,000 players right away when LOTR never got above around 300,000? Was it just good timing on Funcom’s part or was the lack of magic in LOTR that much of a drawback for some players?

Oh well at least Warhammer looks to have a lot of fans and probably won’t lose half of them in three months like Age of Conan. Oh and while the outer layer does look a lot like World of Warcraft some of the main gameplay mechanics are different enough where I can’t really say there the same MMO.

http://relmstein.blogspot.com

@Njal

I think you are confused. WAR has been in a fairly shippable state for months. AoC was NEVER in a shippable state. WAR beta testers are saying “ship it”. AoC beta testers were screaming “its not ready”.

@Stromwaltz

It is unknown how much of Evendim was actually already complete and most likely cut from launch in beta to finish it. Good decision to pull it if it wasn’t ready, but they can’t prop it up as a completely new zone if they were working on it with the rest of the game.

@D-One

Mark is more than allowed to opine that AoC’s failures have put the limelight on WAR. AoC in no way shape or form did anything remotely successful. They sold some copies and failed to retain most of those customers. That is a very dangerous thing to call successful.

LoTRO’s PvMP area has a *lot* of potential, but it seems like Turbine isn’t putting much emphasis on it. In my opinion, if they had a more robust PvP system, they’d have more people excited about playing.

PvP is the only reason I’ll even be looking at Warhammer. There’s only so much excitement to be had from levelling a character up, even with a lot of content.

@heartless

It’s sort of shippable. And I’m a beta tester who’s not saying ship it. What it isn’t is as polished as it should be. It will probably do very well and when they get the kinks worked out it will be great.

The basic gameplay is there for my taste and I bought the CE the day it was put on the market. I just think that various things could be better and that they are rushing the ship date some.

If only we could get a MMO scrapped together that had:

The Immersion of LoTR:O
The Dynamic World of EQ
The PvP structure from DAoC
and the Combat style from WoW

I think we’d have one hellova good MMO. Where is the company that is “innovative” enough to bring *cough*steal*cough* all these ideas together in one game?!?

and I think it’s pretty funny too that “it’s all up to (Mythic) now” came shortly after this gem:

““What’s most important — something that so many developers forget — is you also need to deflate the ego a little bit.””

Nothing is going to touch WoW’s numbers until Blizzard makes a new MMO.

And FunCom did pretty well with AoC I think.

“The Dynamic World of EQ”

? Are we thinking about the same game here?

I know this is a business and all, but doesn’t anyone want to create a great game just to create a great game, and not for the market share or to beat WoW or to be number 1?

@ Ashendarei and don’t forget the crafting and decoration options of SWG.

Truly, the next game to go close to providing those sorts of abilities will become VERY popular.

@Adam

Yes, there are many developers who would like to create a great game just to create a great game. But the tens of millions that must be spent dictate that the game has to be a large revenue-generator. I don’t think that MMO-as-vanity-project is likely given the cost to produce.

”

I think you are confused. WAR has been in a fairly shippable state for months. AoC was NEVER in a shippable state. WAR beta testers are saying “ship it”. AoC beta testers were screaming “its not ready”.”

The game is not finished and if they were more concerned about “retention rates” than they were initial sales numbers so they can plaster it everywhere , they would hold off a couple of months. But they won’t which is a shame.

War may be stable, and shippable, but for cryin out loud, its going to fail hard. The PVE combat is dull and uninspired, not to mention the whole disconnect between toon action and damage effect and possibly more importantly, the toon art is just cringe-worthy. If this thing doesn’t shut its doors within a year, I’ll be surprised.

Relmstein: I can tell you in four letters why AoC got a larger initial audience than LotRO: GTA, M (rating). Funcom chose a mostly-dead property with remembered “mature” appeal, and were aggressive about playing up the decapitations, arterial sprays, and mostly-naked women. They courted the “mature” players, and those people gave it a try (the MMG audience being what it is, they also got flybys by the immature players – “lol boobz”).

Before it shipped, did LotRO have anything aside from the IP to distinguish it from WoW? I don’t recall anything in particular that set it apart. IMO, IP doesn’t actually count for a lot when you’re talking about something below the “cultural phenomenon” level of Star Wars or Harry Potter, and LoTR, for as long as its been around, is still mostly a niche geek thing.

Engels Says:
September 3, 2008 at 12:49 am

…….. If this thing doesn’t shut its doors within a year, I’ll be surprised.”

In that case prepare to be shocked. I predict that it wont knock WOW off of number 1 but that it will be number 2 – especially in the non-asian countries.

As annoyingly cocky as MJ can be hes sort of right. For the good of the MMO market hes got the last best hope.

I may think it could use a couple of months polish but I also think WAR will succeed and be a strong #2 to WoW. I think it will have around 1 million subs consistently by a year after launch.

Are we thinking about the same game here?

I’ve been secretly playing EQ2 for the past month or two.

Besides being almost a fun game to play (you can solo stuff! SOLO! And you almost never run out of quests), it’s given me an insight into the details of the game world that I could never hope to see in eq1. Whoever wrote the fluff material for this game knew what they were doing and the game presents the stories pretty well.

I think WAR is going to be pretty strongly in the #2 spot for awhile. I think that it’s going to be the post launch additions that make WAR crumble or shine.

I also think Warhammer is going to be in the number two spot for quite awhile. But I worry about the graphic quality of games that use a stylistic approach rather then a more realistic one. If you look at the landscapes in Age of Conan or Lord of the Rings you are deffinitely impressed. However, the landscapes in War and WoW are looking a bit dated. That’s really bad for War since it hasn’t even come out yet.

Someone needs to make a game that has the same exagerrated landscapes and armor that WoW/War uses, but actually increase the graphic quality.

@Relmstein
Yet, those “stylized” landscapes seem to sell more than the realistic (like Vanguard? which has way better landscapes)
People want a good game (is what I keep getting told, especially if the new Darkfall trailer is any indication…that engine looks like ass, but people think it is better than pizza)
I guesstimate that the engine has been tweaked, and on launch, WAR will look like a high end WoW.
And the gameplay will be WoW like enough, that it will keep whatever players stray from WoW long enough to drink a new flavor of kool aid.
Cheers

Mark Jacobs, years ago you served along Funcom in the MMO wars. Now we beg you to help us in our struggle against the ActivisionBlizzard. … information vital to the survival of fun gameplay is in the memory circuits of this Warhammer server. Josh Drescher will know how to retrieve it. You must see this game safely delivered to us before WOTLK. This is our most desperate hour. Help us Mark Jacobs, you are our only hope.

If we compare just the US markets, Warhammer will be #2. It isn’t perfect – the economy and tradeskills are underdeveloped, for example – but the pvp focus of the game is much more interesting than other MMO’s, to players who enjoy pvp. I found the PvE actually quite engaging – the public quests, for example, were a good idea and helped pull me into the game effectively.

WAR shares more design elements with DAOC than it does with WoW. Just putting a quest indicator over a NPC’s head and having some instanced PvP doesn’t make it a WoW clone. That’s just good game design now. I don’t really understand the WoW-clone argument, Lum. “Innovation” doesn’t have to mean 100% new. Something can be 10% new and still be innovative.

What will make or break WH in the long run is post-launch class/realm balance. Mythic struggled with balance in DAOC, and undertook some severe changes in direction over the course of the game. They never came up with a really good answer to the over/under populated realms, and I don’t see one for Warhammer either.

@Axecleaver:

There is a Leipzig movie out where Mythic states that underperforming realms will receive bonus to help them level and achieve at a faster rate. Mythic did say they will never penalize a realm for being “better” at PvP. Which in my book is a good compromise.

While a feature added long after launch this really helped Planetside. I am sure Mythic can improve on it.

Incentive Adjustments based on:

Seven-day average population balance

The real-time population balance on each continent

Details:
http://planetside.station.sony.com/game_updates/development.vm?category=Game&id=61624

I’m seeing (and even somewhat feeling) a vitriol with respect to WoW that I personally haven’t seen since eq1 and the Vision days of Abashi ticking people off. It is WAY beyond simple burnout.

People want WAR to be good not only because they want an alternative to WoW but because they want WoW to do poorly. It’s hard to describe really but from my perspective I see WoW as scrooge mc’ducking it in swimming pools of money and not investing back into the game appropriately. They haven’t done a great job on elder game except for the raiding niche. They are very vulnerable on a lot of fronts (e.g. PvP) and while their content is polished they have some pretty smelly failures also (meeting stones, lfg ui, heroics, in-game voice chat).

End of the day if WAR is DAOC2 then it will do well. Their timing is right and I think a bunch of people are looking for any other game that is even headed in the right direction.

WAR is DAOC 2 “lite”. It will do better then AoC, and will hold subscribers for a bit. But as it stands now it is probably roughly a 6 month game. For some reason DAoC’s frontiers and relic Raids seem infinately more replayable then WAR’s 15 minute cycle keep assaults. And realm imbalance will be a HUGE problem in release. It has already proven to be a major issue in every phase of beta.

And as a beta tester, I agree, the game should have released in November. It is good, it is stable, it is rushed. Another 4 to 6 weeks would make a world of diference in what is there at release.

>> I see WoW as scrooge mc’ducking it in swimming
>> pools of money and not investing back into the
>> game appropriately. They haven’t done a great job
>> on elder game except for the raiding niche. They are
>> very vulnerable on a lot of fronts (e.g. PvP) and
>> while their content is polished they have some pretty
>> smelly failures also (meeting stones, lfg ui, heroics,
>> in-game voice chat).

That is exactly how I see it. My biggest gripe about WoW is the obvious fact that they barely reinvest in the game. They just rake in the money and cackle all the way to the bank. No player housing? No mini games? No fluff? Just more raid dungeons? Seriously?

I also agree with the poster who noted that a lot of people want WAR to succeed just to take WoW down a notch. Imagine how much better both games would be if they can really give each other a run for their money.

The shame of it all is that the subscription model really hurts competition. It locks people in and makes it really hard for people to move back and forth depending on which game is doing a better job.

-Cambios
Blogging about Online Gaming and Virtual Worlds:
http://www.muckbeast.com

Eh, I’ll play them all, rip off all the good ideas, repackage them in another container, and resell them with approximately 41% alternate backstory…

Wait… What?

That’s alreay been done before? Damn you, Tolkien! You made everything that’s come after your works just look like a pale comparison or cheap ripoff thereof! Leave some imagination and ingenuity for the rest of us poor folk!

/shakes fist

…lol.

Thanks for the B5 reference.

Playing the WAR open beta for the past two days, I think it will easily be #2 to WoW in subs, and far ahead of everything else. Definitely will not overtake it, but will pull in more than everyone else. LOTRO is an incredible game, but not solo-friendly enough to be “huge” in the current WoW-dominated market.